Forecast
24 h total at the point
Click any map to choose a point
IFS Control–
AIFS Single–
Probability of 24 h precipitation above threshold
24 h total precipitation
Probability of 24 h precipitation
24 h totals at the point
IFS ControlAIFS Singlemm per 24 h window · click a bar to select its window
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Probability above threshold at the point
IFS ENSAIFS ENSecPoint chart colour class (range)by 24 h window
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Data & Sources
This output is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Licence: CC BY 4.0. Changes were made — see “Processing” below. ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.
| Product | Source and access | Coverage used | Licence |
|---|---|---|---|
| IFS Control — 24 h total precipitation | ECMWF real-time open data, data.ecmwf.int/forecasts, via the ecmwf-opendata client (model=ifs, stream=oper, type=fc, param=tp). Since IFS cycle 50r1 this forecast is the ensemble control (formerly HRES). | 0.1° global; 00/12 UTC runs to T+360, 06/18 UTC to T+144 | CC BY 4.0 · ECMWF Terms of Use · doi:10.21957/open-data |
| AIFS Single — 24 h total precipitation | As above (model=aifs-single) | 0.25° global; to T+360 | As above |
| IFS ENS — probability of 24 h precipitation > 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 mm | As above (stream=enfo, type=ep, param=tpg1…tpg100) | 0.1° global; 24 h ranges every 12 h to T+360 | As above |
| AIFS ENS — the same probabilities | As above (model=aifs-ens) | 0.25° global; to T+360 | As above |
| ecPoint-Rainfall — probabilities of point rainfall in 24 h (EXPERIMENTAL) | ECMWF Open Charts, product medium-point-rain-prob-24h, global area, retrieved through the Open Charts API | Thresholds 1–100 mm; 00/12 UTC runs to T+360, 06/18 UTC to T+144 | CC BY 4.0, © ECMWF. Cropped to the map area; otherwise unchanged. |
Processing (changes made to the ECMWF data)
- 24 h totals for IFS Control and AIFS Single are differences of the total precipitation accumulated from the start of the run: tp(T+L) − tp(T+L−24). IFS tp (m) is converted to mm; AIFS tp is already in kg m⁻² (mm). Small negative differences from data packing (down to about −0.1 mm) are set to 0.
- Each 24 h window is aligned with the run's cycle: 00/12 UTC runs give windows ending at 00 or 12 UTC; 06/18 UTC runs give windows ending at 06 or 18 UTC.
- Fields are re-encoded as Cloud-Optimised GeoTIFFs on the original grids: amounts rounded to 0.1 mm, probabilities to 1 %. No interpolation or smoothing; zoomed-out views sample grid points (nearest neighbour). Values at a point are those of the nearest grid point of each model.
- The ecPoint charts are downloaded as vector PDFs and only their map area is shown (title and legend removed), otherwise as published, with a link to the original chart.
- At the chosen point, the ecPoint row of the table gives the colour class of the chart there (for example 40.5–60.5 %), not a probability value. It is read from the chart's own coloured polygons, redrawn without coastlines or gridlines; on the charts checked it matches the displayed colour on more than 99.9 % of the map. The probability chart at the point shows the same class range as a shaded band for every 24 h window. ecPoint is not used in any score.
Coastlines and land boundaries: Natural Earth 1:50m (public domain), coordinates rounded to 0.01°.
What this site is not
It is not a forecasting or warning service. Its purpose is to show the difference between gridded forecasts and point observations, and what it is reasonable to expect from each. For warnings, use your national meteorological service (in Europe, Meteoalarm).